GartnerGroup's Dataquest Sees Pivotal Role for Internet in Presidential Election in 2000
... But Only if Candidates Learn From Portals, E-Commerce Sites
Norwalk, Conn. -- May 4, 1999 -- In the 1930s, the then-new medium of radio powered Franklin Delano Roosevelt to the presidency. In the 1960s, television, still in its infancy, swung the tide for a victorious John Kennedy. This year, the Internet is the new kid on the block, and it is poised to play a major role in presidential politics in the year 2000.
According to GartnerGroup's Dataquest, the issue will not be if candidates use the Internet, for virtually every candidate will have a Web site. The key will be who masters the medium most effectively. "The challenge facing candidates is to exploit this new Internet medium to its fullest -- to capture the 'hearts and minds' of the voters as FDR and JFK did with radio and TV," said Dataquest analyst George Barto.
In terms of pure numbers, the Internet's importance is assured. According to a recent Dataquest survey of 16,500 U.S. households, 55 percent of voting-age Americans have Internet access from somewhere, be it home, work, school or elsewhere. That figure is projected to rise rapidly to 63 percent by "Super Tuesday" (March 7, 2000 ), when primary elections and caucuses will choose more than half the convention delegates needed to secure the major party nominations. By election day (Nov. 7, 2000), 70 percent of voting-age adults are expected to have Internet access. The survey also found that some 12 percent of Web users regularly visit sites about political candidates, a figure that is sure to rise as election day draws nearer.
Being an interactive medium with graphics, video and audio capabilities well beyond those of print, radio or TV, the Internet seems ready-made for delivering candidates' messages in a dramatic and memorable way. However, graphics, audio and video can require extensive download times, particularly in view of limited download speeds in most U.S. households. Long download times can discourage visitors from staying on or returning to the site.
Another major advantage of the Internet is its interactivity -- its ability to gather information about voters: their likes, dislikes and attitudes. However, this is a double-edged sword as well -- as Al Gore recently discovered after the negative publicity caused by press reports that his "Gore2000" Web site contained questions soliciting information from children without parental permission. "This was a serious error," Barto said, "since 40 percent of those who visit political Web sites are from households with children under 18."
"The challenge facing candidates in 2000 will be to gain the advantage by going beyond 'plain vanilla' Web sites and fully exploiting the Internet's capacity to capture the voters' 'hearts and minds,'" Barto said. Just as Kennedy drew upon the experience of the "image doctors" of his time, Barto suggests that candidates draw upon today's Internet experts to:
  • Capitalize on the lessons learned in the development of portal services and electronic-commerce sites by developing site "stickiness" through compelling interactive content.
  • Make effective use of graphics, audio and video while striking an optimum balance between an appealing site and fast download times.
  • Tread lightly while garnering voter information by employing alternative personal data gathering methods such as competitions, free newsletter subscriptions and surveys on topical issues.
"If no candidate successfully masters the Internet in this election," Barto said, "the first 'Internet presidential election' may have to be postponed to 2004."
INTECO (http://www.inteco.com), headquartered in Norwalk, Conn., was recently acquired by GartnerGroup and is now part of GartnerGroup's Dataquest unit. INTECO conducts market research to forecast consumer acceptance of emerging technologies for up to five years into the future with a high degree of accuracy. By combining large-scale, interview-based research data with a methodology that weighs the interaction of consumer demand vs. consumer resistance to new technologies, INTECO provides valuable strategic and tactical insights for companies marketing technology-related products or services.
About GartnerGroup
As the world's leading authority on IT, GartnerGroup, Inc. (NYSE:IT) provides clients with a wide range of products and services in the areas of IT advisory services, measurement, research, decision support, analysis and consulting. Founded in 1979, with headquarters in Stamford, Conn., GartnerGroup is at the center of a global community serving Fortune 1000 companies from 80 locations worldwide. GartnerGroup's unique capabilities and resources help bring clarity to the direction of the world's hottest and most volatile industry.
Exhibit 1
Voters Who Visit Political Web Sites (December 1998; Vertical Percentages)
INDIVIDUALS All voters All who visit political candidates' Web sites
Totals (adults 18 and over) 196 million 13.2 million
All males 48% 71%
- 18-34 16 31
- 35-49 16 23
- 50 and over 16 17
All females 52% 29%
- 18-34 16 12
- 35-49 16 10
- 50 and over 20 7
Exhibit 2:
Early Primary and Caucus States (Horizontal Percentages)
Early Primary/ Caucus States Number of voters in state (millions) Percent of voters who are online in this state Percent of online voters who visit political sites
Iowa 1.9 50% 13.7%
New Hampshire 1.0 60% 4.4%
Delaware 0.8 64% 5.3%
South Carolina 2.6 45% 19.2%
North Dakota 0.6 37% 9.5%
Super Tuesday (March 7, 2000)      
California 21.9 63% 14.8%
Connecticut 2.8 63% 6.6%
D.C. 0.4 62% 24.8%
Florida 10.7 55% 18.9%
Georgia 4.9 58% 12.3%
Maine 0.9 43% 9.6%
Maryland 5.0 61% 14.2%
Massachusetts 4.4 55% 11.2%
Missouri 3.7 55% 11.2%
New Jersey 6.0 59% 6.5%
New York 6.6 41% 6.6%
Rhode Island 0.6 0.2% 11.9%
Vermont 0.4 65% 15.1%
(U.S. - all states) 196 55% 55%
CONTACT:
F. R. Dulaney
GartnerGroup
(203) 866-4400 ext. 23
fdulaney@inteco.com